Major U.S. airlines including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Southwest Airlines are expected to face an additional $11 billion in jet fuel expenses this year as the conflict involving Iran disrupts energy markets and restricts traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The escalation in tensions in the Middle East has pushed jet fuel prices sharply higher, creating significant financial pressure for carriers across the United States.

Jet fuel prices have surged nearly 60%, reaching about $3.95 per gallon at their peak before easing slightly to around $3.40 per gallon. In response to the volatility, the U.S. government has raised its annual average forecast for jet fuel prices to $2.67 per gallon—about 37% higher than projections made just a month ago. Unlike many European airlines that hedge fuel prices to protect against market fluctuations, most major U.S. carriers abandoned hedging strategies roughly a decade ago, leaving them more exposed to sudden spikes in energy costs.

Fuel remains the largest single operating expense for airlines worldwide. According to a report by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), aircraft fuel and oil account for roughly 28.7% of total airline operating costs globally. As fuel prices continue to rise amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions, airlines are likely to pass some of these costs on to passengers through higher ticket fares, which could weaken demand in certain travel segments.

Although the Middle East represents only a small portion of the route networks for the three legacy carriers, and Southwest Airlines does not operate flights to the region, the global nature of fuel markets means the impact is being felt across the aviation industry. Analysts warn that if the conflict persists, airlines in the United States and worldwide may need to reassess growth strategies, adjust operational planning, and potentially slow expansion plans to cope with prolonged fuel price volatility.