Florida, a top destination for Canadian tourists, is feeling the impact as travel from Canada to the United States sharply declines—driven largely by political tensions and controversial rhetoric from former President Donald Trump. Travel and tourism officials across the Sunshine State are already witnessing a downturn in bookings and expressing growing concern over the economic fallout.

According to Visit Lauderdale and Visit Orlando, both advance travel and hotel bookings by Canadian visitors have dropped significantly. “For the nicest people on the planet, who are Canadians, the language is strong,” said Stacy Ritter, CEO of Visit Lauderdale, highlighting the blunt feedback received from potential visitors.

New data shows Canadian interest in visiting the U.S. is plummeting. Aviation analytics firm OAG reports that bookings for Canada–U.S. flights between April and September are down over 70% compared to the same period last year. The slump is attributed to political tensions, including Trump's calls for Canada to become the "51st state" and the imposition of tariffs, which have triggered a strong wave of Canadian nationalism and resentment toward the U.S.

“This sharp drop suggests that travelers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute,” said John Grant, OAG’s chief analyst.

The consequences for Florida’s tourism-driven economy could be significant. The U.S. Travel Association estimates that a mere 10% decline in Canadian travel could cost the U.S. economy $2.1 billion and lead to 14,000 job losses.

Airlines are responding to the trend. Seat capacity on flights from Canadian cities to Tampa International Airport was reduced by 12% in April, according to the Tampa Bay Times. Larger cuts were observed at Miami International Airport and Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International.

Canadian tourists have traditionally played a key role in Florida's tourism sector. They make up approximately 2% of the state’s overall visitors and 3% of Pinellas County’s annual tourist base. However, the current political climate is pushing many away.

"I love Dunedin, but I'm not going there this year and maybe never again," said Toronto resident Larry Milson, voicing a sentiment shared by many fellow Canadians.

Despite encouraging revenue data from hotel taxes in Pinellas County for December and January, officials caution that full results from February and March will provide a clearer picture of the long-term impact.

As the rift between U.S. and Canadian relations continues to widen, Florida’s tourism industry may have to rethink its strategies for one of its most loyal international markets.