Forward bookings for flights between Canada and the United States have plummeted by as much as 75% in the coming months compared to the same period in 2024, according to data from travel analytics company OAG. The sharp decline has prompted some airlines to adjust their schedules, raising concerns about the impact of broader trade disputes on travel demand.

Plummeting Forward Bookings

OAG’s data, based on forward booking trends from a major global distribution system (GDS), reveals a troubling pattern. Comparing flight bookings from Canada to the US between March 2025 and the same period in 2024, significant declines are evident. For example:

• April: 1.2 million (2024) vs. 295,982 (2025)
• May: 817,912 (2024) vs. 226,982 (2025)
• June: 649,878 (2024) vs. 184,720 (2025)
• August: 370,228 (2024) vs. 103,914 (2025)
• September: 223,160 (2024) vs. 65,680 (2025)

OAG senior analyst John Grant noted that the sharp drop suggests travelers are delaying reservations due to uncertainty surrounding ongoing trade disputes. The decline aligns with a recent study by Canadian polling firm Leger, which found that nearly half (48%) of Canadian travelers are less likely to visit the US in 2025 compared to the previous year.

Airlines Respond with Capacity Adjustments

Several Canadian airlines have already begun adjusting their schedules in response to declining demand. Air Transat, which has limited exposure to the US market, continues to monitor the situation closely. The airline’s CEO, Annick Guerard, indicated that the company is assessing whether passengers will opt for last-minute bookings as economic conditions shift.

Similarly, WestJet’s CEO Alexis von Hoensbroech expressed disappointment over the impact of US trade policies on travel demand. He confirmed that bookings from Canada to the US have dropped significantly since the announcement of new tariffs by former President Donald Trump.

Air Canada, which had projected adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of between CA$3.4 billion ($2.3 billion) and CA$3.8 billion ($2.6 billion) in 2025, has acknowledged that government policies and trade disputes could significantly affect its financial outlook.

Potential for Last-Minute Recovery?

Despite the steep decline in advance bookings, some industry analysts believe last-minute reservations could offset part of the losses. However, ongoing economic uncertainty and the potential for new tariffs may deter travelers from committing to trips.

Capacity adjustments by Canadian airlines further illustrate the volatility of the situation. While overall flight capacity between Canada and the US has increased slightly (by 4.1% in flights and 4.5% in seats), key airlines have reduced schedules. Air Transat and Flair Airlines have cut their transborder flights by 22.1% and 26.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, Air Canada has increased its flights on US routes by a marginal 0.6%.

With the US administration signaling the possibility of expanded tariffs on Canadian and European Union imports, the travel market remains highly uncertain. If tensions persist, airlines may be forced to make further capacity adjustments in response to fluctuating demand.