After a temporary setback in 2025, the United States is poised to experience a strong rebound in international tourism, according to new projections from Tourism Economics. The travel market research firm estimates that 67.9 million international visitors will have arrived in the U.S. by the end of 2025 — an upward revision from its earlier forecast of 65.6 million.

Despite the improvement in projections, the total represents a 2.7% year-over-year decline, reflecting the ongoing effects of global economic uncertainty and shifting traveler sentiment. Yet analysts remain optimistic, predicting that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new growth cycle for inbound travel.

Major Events to Drive Recovery

Tourism Economics expects international visitation to the U.S. to increase by approximately 4% in 2026, with growth accelerating to an average annual rate of 5% through the end of the decade. By 2029, the country is projected to welcome a record 81.9 million international visitors, surpassing the previous 2018 high of 79.7 million.

The anticipated rebound will be fueled by several major events that are expected to capture global attention — including the FIFA World Cup, the 250th anniversary of the United States, and the Route 66 Centennial celebrations. These landmark occasions are expected to strengthen the U.S. brand as a must-visit destination and reignite enthusiasm among international travelers.

Changing Market Dynamics

Data shared by Brand USA highlights shifting patterns in key inbound markets.

• Europe continues to be the largest overseas source of travelers, representing 41% of total international arrivals — a share expected to remain steady through 2029.
• Mexico has now overtaken Canada as the top inbound market, with visitation up 12% year-over-year as of July 2025.
• In contrast, inbound travel from Canada has declined by nearly 20%, altering a long-standing dynamic in North American tourism flows.

A Stabilizing Force for the Economy

Despite recent challenges — from economic headwinds to political uncertainty and the risk of government shutdowns — inbound travel remains a stabilizing force for the U.S. economy. The sector supports millions of jobs and contributes significantly to local communities across the country.

As global confidence returns, the outlook for U.S. tourism appears increasingly positive. The combination of renewed international interest, major cultural events, and continued marketing efforts is expected to restore momentum — and position the United States for a historic tourism resurgence in the years ahead.