"Our latest bi-annual forecast projects all travel segments to be strong in 2023 and beyond, despite our expectation of weakening economic conditions and a post-pandemic normalization in demand. Even when adjusted for inflation, and despite the still lagging recovery in the business and international segments, total travel spending in the US is expected to reach 93% of 2019 levels this year," says U.S. Travel on your website.

The first half of 2023 has managed to dodge a recession, but with skyrocketing inflation, continued tight monetary policy, and more subdued consumer spending, a mild recession is likely towards the end of the year. Coupled with weakening demand and a decline in excess savings, continued travel growth will face moderate headwinds.

However, the negative effects of the economy on total travel spending are expected to be limited in scope and duration, as consumers continue to prioritize and value travel.

While they are expecting a very strong summer, travel is expected to moderate this fall and possibly into the first quarter of 2024 as a result of the anticipated recession. Still, with travel's strong performance in the early part of the year, and expected strength in the latter part of next year, annual growth rates will largely obscure the brief slowdown anticipated.

By segment:

Domestic leisure travel, the driving force behind the industry's post-pandemic comeback, will experience continued strength.

Volume and inflation-adjusted spending will fully recover this year and are positioned for continued, albeit more normalized, growth rates (around 2%) in 2023 and 2024.

Domestic business travel is expected to continue to recover, although an inflation-adjusted total return to spending remains beyond the forecast range.

Both turnover and spending are expected to experience double-digit growth in 2023, but their pace of recovery will moderate towards the end of the year and into 2024.

International inbound travel, still lagging far behind, is expected to pick up in the coming months and years as it reaches a near-full recovery next year.

The already impressive return of Canada and India will be matched by a few other markets as they slowly return to pre-pandemic levels of visitation.

US Travel advocates for the following four key areas of federal policy to accelerate growth across all travel sectors:

Improving the overall air travel experience through the Federal Aviation Administration's reauthorization bill.

Reduced wait times for US visitor visa interviews, currently exceeding an average of 500 days in major inbound visa-requiring markets.

Reduce customs wait times at US airports and other ports of entry that experience excessive delays.

Increase federal prioritization and focus on growing the travel industry, as many other countries have done.
Addressing the above policy priorities is necessary to ensure we meet, and hopefully exceed, our forecast as we enter an increasingly competitive chapter of global travel.