US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet this Friday in Alaska for a summit that could determine the next chapter of the war in Ukraine. While the White House frames the meeting as an effort to “explore pathways to peace,” the Kremlin hints it may open the door to a nuclear arms control deal.

The talks come amid renewed debate over possible territorial concessions, with Russia occupying nearly 20% of Ukraine’s land. Trump has floated the idea of a “swap” involving some territories, though he has not specified which areas. Kyiv has firmly rejected ceding any part of its sovereign land, a stance echoed by President Volodymyr Zelensky and supported by most European allies.

Territory at the heart of the talks
Reports suggest Moscow proposed a ceasefire deal in exchange for Ukraine relinquishing the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk – collectively known as the Donbas. However, fighting in the region has intensified in recent days, with Russian forces advancing northeast of Dobropilia. Ukraine describes these gains as minor infiltrations, though local sources warn they could signal deeper vulnerabilities.

Potential concessions from Russia are limited. The Kremlin controls small “buffer zones” in northern Ukraine near Sumy and Kharkiv, but these areas are neither strategically significant nor equivalent to the vast territories under Russian control in the east and south.

A shift in Western tone
Since Trump’s return to the White House, European leaders have shown a subtle shift, cautiously discussing the possibility of “freezing” current front lines as a basis for talks. This would mark a departure from years of refusing to recognise any Russian gains since the 2022 invasion.

For Kyiv, freezing the lines now might be a pragmatic option, given Russia’s steady territorial gains. However, Zelensky warns that conceding territory would embolden Moscow, as happened after Crimea’s annexation in 2014.

The stakes in Alaska
Putin says the summit aims to “create long-term conditions for peace” between the US and Russia, as well as globally. Yet diplomats note the Kremlin’s strategy appears to be playing for time, leveraging slow-moving diplomacy to consolidate battlefield gains.

Trump has hinted that if a deal seems impossible “in the first two minutes” of talks, he could pivot to imposing secondary sanctions on Russia’s major energy buyers, including India and China. Still, observers caution that the unpredictable dynamic between Trump and Putin could lead to an outcome far from Kyiv’s expectations.

As the leaders prepare to meet, Alaska becomes the stage for one of the most consequential diplomatic gambles in recent memory — a meeting where the stakes are measured in territory, sovereignty, and the future of European security.