In a dramatic turn of events, France's high-stakes parliamentary elections have positioned the far-right National Rally as the frontrunner in the first round of voting on Sunday. According to pollster Ipsos Talan, this result marks a significant setback for centrist President Emmanuel Macron. The leftist union New Popular Front is projected to come in second place, while Macron's centrist alliance trails in third.

First Estimates and Caution
With the polls now closed, initial estimates have been released. However, these figures should be interpreted with caution. They reflect broad election dynamics but do not necessarily predict the final outcome, considering the 577 constituency votes and the second round of voting scheduled for next weekend.

Here are the estimates from various sources:

IFOP:
Far-Right National Rally: 34.2%
Leftwing New Popular Front: 29.1%
Emmanuel Macron’s Allies Together: 21.5%

BFMTV:
Far-Right National Rally: 33%
Leftwing New Popular Front: 28.5%
Emmanuel Macron’s Allies Together: 22%
Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party is leading with 34% of the votes, as per Ipsos Talan. Le Pen has called on voters to grant the National Rally an “absolute majority” in parliament, aiming for Jordan Bardella to be appointed prime minister in eight days.

Reactions from Political Leaders
The leftist New Popular Front, projected to secure 28.5% of the votes, is headed by France’s hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. He described President Macron’s centrist alliance’s performance as a “heavy and undisputable” defeat and urged the French electorate to vote against the far-right in the upcoming second round.

President Macron’s centrist Ensemble won just 20.3% of the votes. In response, the president has urged voters to prevent the far right from securing a decisive victory in the second-round elections.

Official Statements
French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal emphasized on Sunday that not a single vote should go to the far-right National Rally in next week’s second round of parliamentary elections. This statement followed the far-right’s leading position in the first round.

Context and Future Outlook
Macron dissolved parliament on June 9 and called for snap legislative elections on June 30 and July 7 after the far-right National Rally outperformed his centrist alliance in the European elections. The elections for the 577 seats in the lower house National Assembly are conducted in a two-round process, with the final shape of the new parliament expected to be clear after the second round on July 7.

Voter Turnout
The turnout rate in mainland France was estimated at 65.5%, according to Ipsos Talan, significantly higher than the 47.5% turnout recorded in 2022.

As the second round approaches, the dynamics of these elections could significantly influence the political landscape of France, determining the balance of power within the National Assembly.