Trump, aiming to avoid becoming the first incumbent president to lose a re-election bid since fellow Republican George H.W. Bush in 1992, has a frenetic schedule for Sunday, with stops planned in Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida. Biden is due to campaign in Pennsylvania.

Biden’s national lead in opinion polls has stayed relatively steady in recent months as the coronavirus pandemic has persisted. The former vice president was ahead 51% to 43% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, taken Oct. 27-29.

Trump faces what appears to be a narrow path to re-election. Polls show him close to Biden in enough battleground states that could give him the 270 votes needed to win in the state-by-state Electoral College that determines the overall victor.

The race remains a toss-up in Florida, North Carolina and Arizona, according to Reuters/Ipsos polls, while Trump trails by 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania and 9 percentage points in Michigan and Wisconsin.

New polling numbers out today, and it is mostly a good outlook for the Biden campaign – to the extent that we are going to believe the polls, anyway.

Wisconsin appears out of reach for Trump and likely to return to the Democratic side of the ledger. Arizona and Pennsylvania each give Biden a solid but not solidified six-point lead. And Florida is, well, Florida. Leaning to Biden by three points, the Sunshine state is once again headed to a photo finish

That’s Don Levy, Director of the Siena College Research Institute, who have published the numbers in conjunction with the New York Times this morning.

Biden leads by 11 points in Wisconsin, six in Arizona and Pennsylvania, and by three points in Florida. Those were all Trump victories in 2016. The NYT/Siena College poll makes it as:

Arizona: Biden 49% – Trump 43%
Florida: Biden 47% – Trump 44%
Pennsylvania: Biden 49% – Trump 43%
Wisconsin: Biden 52% – Trump 41%

ABC/Washington Post poll: Florida remains toss-up, Biden leads slightly in Pennsylvania

The pandemic versus the economy defines the presidential contest in two key battlegrounds, with Florida holding firm to its toss-up status while Joe Biden leads slightly in Pennsylvania in the season’s final ABC News/Washington Post polls.

There’s little change in either state. In Florida, Donald Trump has 50% support among likely voters to Biden’s 48%; it was 51%-47% in an ABC/Post poll Sept. 20. Trump won the state by 112,911 votes out of more than 9.4 million cast in 2016.

In Pennsylvania, the race stands at 51%-44%, Biden-Trump, a 7-point advantage for the Democrat; that compares with a  9-point margin late last month.