The U.S. Economy likely maintained a strong pace of growth in the fourth quarter as consumers boosted spending on goods, but momentum appears to have slowed considerably towards the end of the year, with higher interest rates eroding demand.

The Commerce Department's advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product report on Thursday could mark the last quarter of solid growth before the lagged effects of the Federal Reserve's fastest monetary policy tightening cycle since the 1980s kick in. Most economists expect a recession by the second half of the year, though mild compared to previous downturns.

It is expected to show that the economy slowed, but still grew at a solid 2.8% pace in the fourth quarter over the third, according to Dow Jones.

The housing market, which is especially vulnerable to higher loan rates, has been badly bruised: Sales of existing homes have dropped for 11 straight months. Investment in housing plunged at a 27% annual rate from July through September.

And consumer spending, which fuels roughly 70% of the entire economy, is likely to soften in the months ahead, along with the still-robust job market. The resilience of the labor market has been a major surprise. Last year, employers added 4.5 million jobs, second only to the 6.7 million that were added in 2021 in government records going back to 1940. And last month’s unemployment rate, 3.5%, matched a 53-year low.