Brazil’s presidential election is heading to a second round, with Flávio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emerging as the two candidates who will compete for the presidency on October 25.

With 90.25% of the ballots counted, Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) holds 47,25% of the valid vote, while Lula of the Workers’ Party (PT) has 44,91%. The difference stands at just over four percentage points.

Neither candidate reached the more than 50% of valid votes required to win the presidency outright in the first round.

Flávio finishes ahead despite polls

Flávio’s first-place finish is particularly significant because several of the final national polls had placed Lula slightly ahead or showed the two candidates in a technical tie.

The final Quaest poll, commissioned by TV Globo and O Globo, showed Lula with 46% of valid votes and Flávio with 45%. Datafolha’s final survey gave Lula 45% and Flávio 42%.

Poder360’s review of 14 national polls conducted between September 9 and October 3 showed Lula numerically ahead in 10 surveys, Flávio ahead in three and a tie in one. The picture was considerably more balanced in hypothetical runoff scenarios, with six polls favoring each candidate and two showing a tie.

The final vote therefore represents a significant shift from the polling picture of the final days of the campaign.

The economy and the rise of the opposition

Brazilian media analyses point to several factors behind Flávio’s strong performance. Folha de S.Paulo highlighted the gap between Brazil’s relatively favorable macroeconomic indicators and voters’ perception of their own economic situation.

The opposition successfully focused its campaign on issues such as food prices, household debt and the cost of living, while the Lula administration struggled to turn improvements in employment and income into a broader positive political narrative.

The result also reflects the continuing strength of Brazil’s ideological polarization, with the election once again centered on the confrontation between the political forces associated with Lula and the Bolsonaro family.

A divided electoral map

The national result masks significant regional differences. Poder360’s electoral analysis showed Lula and Flávio leading in 12 states each, highlighting the geographic balance of the presidential contest.

Pre-election runoff polls also showed sharply different regional scenarios. In Minas Gerais, for example, an AtlasIntel/Estadão survey gave Flávio 50.2% against 47.4% for Lula in a hypothetical runoff, a result considered a technical tie because of the margin of error. In Paraíba, meanwhile, Lula held a much stronger advantage.

The overseas vote was also divided. Lula won in countries including Italy, mainland China and Germany, while Flávio secured a strong victory in Japan. According to Poder360, 918,876 Brazilian voters living abroad were eligible to participate.

October 25: a new election begins

The second round will now reshape the campaign. Flávio enters the runoff with the advantage of finishing first and securing almost half of all valid votes. Lula, however, remains within striking distance and will seek to win over voters who supported candidates eliminated in the first round.

During election day, Flávio expressed confidence in winning and argued that voters were moving toward his candidacy. Lula, meanwhile, said the election represented a choice between “democracy and barbarism” and insisted that the ballot box, rather than opinion polls, would determine the outcome.

The next three weeks will therefore be decisive. Flávio Bolsonaro has won the first round, but he has not won the presidency. Lula has finished second, but remains fully competitive.

Brazil now faces another defining political confrontation: Flávio Bolsonaro versus Lula, with the presidency to be decided on October 25.