The night of November 5-6 was a long one in Europe. In Italy and across the rest of the continent, TV channels dedicated extensive overnight coverage to tracking the minute-by-minute progression of the U.S. election results.

By 7 a.m. on Wednesday, many Italians were observing their morning ritual of an espresso before the workday, heading out with an unusual sense of enthusiasm. The popular will of what is still considered the world’s leading nation had validated ideas that a large portion of the Italian population and its current government see as solutions to the continent’s problems.

The issues highlighted by right-wing sovereignty movements in Europe have resonated in the U.S.: uncontrolled immigration, inflation diminishing purchasing power, globalization threatening domestic industries, and an overabundance of freedoms viewed as counter to fundamental institutions like family.

“Kamala broke it, I will fix it.” In this slogan, American citizens found the assurance of a solution, a remedy to all their problems. In Italy, Meloni’s government has also diagnosed these problems, but the cure has yet to arrive. Inflation persists, the number of undocumented immigrants is steady or increasing, the economy is stagnant, and Italian industries are losing competitiveness globally day by day.

Given the lack of concrete results from Meloni’s government, many Italians opted to project their hopes onto an American figure championing similar principles, hoping to reinvigorate these ideals that real-life challenges have made seem difficult to achieve. This is why right-wing political representatives, led by Matteo Salvini, along with social media, spared no words of praise, articles, or posts celebrating the new U.S. president-elect.

If Europe’s issues have migrated to the U.S., Italians believe they may also have exported their model: a new Silvio Berlusconi, a controversial businessman whose success justifies his actions and onto whom people project their aspirations. “If he’s been successful in business, he can solve my problems too.”

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was far more cautious in her response, recognizing that the consequences of Trump’s return to the presidency have broader implications. Trump’s return represents, undeniably, a desire to restore American centrality, which alone weakens Europe, already vulnerable in terms of its economy, defense, and politics.

With only a few points of economic growth, a war on the continent's edge, and a Franco-German axis with both leaders weakened, the EU finds itself in a moment of frailty. Trump has repeatedly insisted that he can bring peace to Ukraine in “24 hours,” without explaining how, and has questioned the aid sent to Kyiv to resist the Russian invasion. Moscow’s interference in the 2016 U.S. election to favor the Republican candidate, along with Trump’s praise for the autocratic Russian president, is hard for European leaders to swallow.

Trump has also made no secret of his distrust of the Atlantic Alliance. During his campaign, he called on NATO countries to increase their defense budgets. It would take only a withdrawal of military and economic support for Zelensky from the new president to force Kyiv into negotiating a less favorable deal. What would Trump do if, after Kyiv's surrender, Russian incursions and intimidation against other vulnerable territories, like Moldova, increased?

The likely reduction of U.S. support for Kyiv would make Europe, especially Germany, the primary military backer for Zelensky. This could present an opportunity, as Emmanuel Macron suggested recently in Budapest, for Europeans to reconsider their security model. “We don’t have to delegate our security to the Americans forever,” Macron declared.

However, filling the void left by a U.S. withdrawal would mean a considerable increase in public spending for European countries, already facing significant economic challenges.

Adding to this is Trump’s declared intention to enact protectionist policies, with possible tariff hikes of 10% to 20% on certain European products, especially those in the automotive sector. This would directly impact the German economy, which is currently balancing between stagnation and slight contraction.

Deutsche Bank estimates that these new tariffs would reduce the Eurozone's GDP by 0.5 to 0.9 points, and has lowered its growth forecast from 1.5% to 0.8% for 2025, and from 1.2% to 1% for 2026, with an increase in unemployment.

In this context, the popular euphoria of many Europeans over Trump’s victory is just a populist mirage. The world economy, led by new sovereignty and protectionist models, will likely lead to tense trade wars with few long-term beneficiaries.

Nonetheless, Trump’s victory marks a new chapter in contemporary history and a substantial transformation in U.S. politics. Trump’s political party has been born: a president who, after losing an election, is reborn, breaking with American tradition. At his side, not behind him, is Elon Musk, who will not live in the White House but will play a role as a sort of shadow figure.

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, inaugurates a new form of capitalism’s involvement in the governance of a state—not merely influencing economic policy but executing it directly. Musk has a mission: to reduce all federal limitations on economic life and individual freedom, minimizing regulation as much as possible. Alongside Trump, he will target European regulations, which they both view as “technocratic norms” that hinder production.

How long this new chapter will last is unknown. Perhaps another four years, perhaps longer. We can only ask ourselves if we are witnessing the rebirth of an American political and economic empire, or the last push before the decline of both the U.S. and, quite possibly, Europe as well.