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Venezuela Elections 2024: Exit Poll Would Give Edmundo González a Wide Lead Over Nicolás Maduro
In a crucial moment for Venezuela, citizens went to the polls this Sunday to cast their votes in an election that could mark the end of Nicolás Maduro's regime. Early exit polls suggest a significant victory for opposition candidate Edmundo González, though conflicting reports and controversies have also emerged.
Exit Polls Indicate Strong Opposition Victory Two major exit polls indicate that Venezuelans have overwhelmingly voted to oust Maduro and elect González as the new president. The Wall Street Journal, through its journalist Juan Forero, reported that an exit poll conducted by Edison Research showed González receiving 64% of the votes. Edison Research, known for its work in major American and international elections, deployed pollsters to 100 voting centers and interviewed 5,464 voters.
In a separate poll, Miami-based consultancy Meganálisis reported that with a voter turnout of 41% by the afternoon, González led with 65.3% of the votes compared to Maduro's 13.1%. This poll also noted that 20.2% of voters did not disclose their choice.
Conflicting Reports and Fake News Although these exit polls suggest a decisive victory for the opposition, there are conflicting reports that cast doubt on the results. Argentine activist Fernando Esteche cited a different poll by Lewis & Thompson, which claimed that Maduro was leading with 55% of the votes compared to González's 34%, with Antonio Ecarri in third place. Esteche's announcement, made around midday, has been echoed by several pro-Maduro figures.
However, the credibility of Lewis & Thompson has been questioned. Investigations by the Venezuelan NGO Cazadores de Fake News revealed that the Lewis & Thompson website domain was created only 18 days ago, on July 10, 2024. Additionally, its associated account on X (formerly Twitter) was established on July 19, 2024, and has only 222 followers, an unusual statistic for a company claiming over 25 years of experience in electoral analysis.
This election is seen as a crucial test for Venezuela's democratic integrity. Maduro, seeking to extend his socialist regime into a third decade, faces his most significant electoral challenge since his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, came to power in 1999. In the days leading up to the election, credible polls showed González leading by more than 30 points, reflecting Maduro's declining popularity across Latin America.
As Venezuela awaits the official results, the nation stands at a crossroads. The substantial support for González in early exit polls suggests a public longing for change. However, the conflicting reports and potential disinformation campaigns highlight the challenges the country faces in ensuring a transparent and fair electoral process. The world watches closely, hoping for a resolution that respects the democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people.