Continue as Prime Minister Netanyahu, while the left would have more votes but unable to put together a governing coalition
We must work with probability calculations and combinations to try to put together the complex political puzzle that the next elections open in Israel. Eleven political parties will surely overcome the barrier of a minimum of 120 parliamentarians cake is distributed, the largest of them probably will rotate in the 25 mandates. From then on everything is science fiction.
It appears that, unless a catastrophe for the ruling party, which wants to be the results, continue as Prime Minister Netanyahu. The left but finished as the largest party has no chance to put together a majority coalition that allows govern.
Unless Netanyahu himself not think there is anyone who knows their true plans. What things are cooked in the depths of his mind, it's a place inaccessible even to his closest collaborators, pure psychology.
In an election campaign in which, despite the impressive amount of money invested in it, mediocrity, lack of order and planning was most striking, as if all give by known that this will be an intermediate round, the real will come before 2 years.
For Netanyahu, surely this will be his last term. Therefore everything is unpredictable: go down in history one of its objectives, it will not be easy.
The only coalition that can provide some stability is if you convert to Labour as their main partner, but it will not enter docilely not accept being a simple partner with key ministries in their hands, will require an egalitarian society, a rotation in the according to Prime Minister Netanyahu if he is forced to accept, an important part of his own party and the right will be responsible for their insurance problems.
It would be two years in which he sacrificed share for stability, with Obama as its primary personal enemy, the worst for Netanyahu is that it passes the last part of his government and is not obliged to curry favor with anyone, will not have much ground to maneuver.
Common sense says, although in the Middle East are words that have no application whatsoever, queel leader of Labour will be the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the new government, he will attempt to return the damaged today amicable relations internationally, it may also submit , the Arab world offer a generous plan agreement with the Palestinians, generous from one side and impossible acceptance from the other, put them to the sword and the wall, a way to break out of isolation and go on the political offensive.
With Hisballá and 120,000 rockets pointing at Israel from the northern border with the Islamic state in Syria closer and looking at Jordan in its expansive plan, with Hamas militarily reconditioning full swing for a new and safe confrontation with President Palestinian Authority increasingly less power and strength, talks with Iran daily disappearance of the State of Israel (now just introduced its new long-range rocket, 2500 Kms, with which covers all of Europe) is impossible to predict, or apply common sense. The spark is always just around the corner.
It is clear that only a right wing government with a strong leader at the height of his power is able to give, to be flexible in political concessions, they will always have the support of the left, backwards, conversely ever, no is what is presented will happen in the short term.
If you enter a coalition government with a rotation in as Prime Minister between the two major parties, common sense says that Netanyahu will sign it knowing in advance that do not comply, after his term in office and before transferring it will break to begin the road to new elections with him and outside the political map.
Added to this are pinning their gazes those trying to be his successor as head of the right, strong leaders do not yet exist but some are beginning to raise their heads.
A choice that opens the door to new elections and much political instability. People no longer surprises, say it is more of the same, luckily they can be distracted by other news, social networks much talk and write about the future marriage of the international model Bar Rafaeli and cost of diamond ring she received, Madonna also bought a penthouse in a building under construction in Tel Aviv for about $ 20 million.
I can not conclude these lines without thank my hosts in Spain where I traveled invited to participate in two talks between closed groups of people interested in learning firsthand the problems of the Middle East. Were three days of flawless organization and much affection.
traslation: Belén Zapata